One month after the U.S. presidential election, there is still a great deal of speculation about what will happen in the M&A market over the next year. Looking back at M&A activity so far this year, compared to 2015 activity, fewer and smaller deals were announced. During the first 9 months of 2016, M&A value dropped by 30% to $1.07 trillion and average deal size dropped by 22% to $132 million. This year we have seen fewer huge, double-digit billion dollar transactions which dominated the marketplace in 2015.
Part of the reason is that historically, leading up to a presidential election where there will be a change of administration, there’s been hesitation in the marketplace. Business people don’t like uncertainty and as a result are less likely to take action.
The outcome of the election caught a number of people off guard, and we have already seen some impact in terms of some deals that are getting re-priced, accelerated or delayed in response. For example, in the healthcare space there’s uncertainty about how the Affordable Care Act will be impacted and we’re seeing a pullback in deals that touch upon it.
Despite this, over the next 24 months we expect an uptick in M&A. We’re already seeing a strong pipeline of deal activity as a result of the election being behind us. The business climate is still somewhat unsettled, but there’s a sense of relief the election is over.